The final of Sweden’s smörgåsbord-esque Eurovision selection will take place tomorrow from Friends Arena, just north of Stockholm. Parties will be held across the globe as people come together to celebrate the crème de la crème of Eurovision selection shows, and ponder why some other countries (i.e. some of the ‘Big 5’) cannot replicate Sweden’s formula and create such an amazing show.

However, this year just feels different, I cannot say I have the same excitement going into the Melfest Final as I would in most years, and that might be because of the one word on everyone’s lips this year: Loreen. Unless you’ve been living under a rock for the past month or so, like the song or hate it, you can’t deny the impact her song Tattoo has had, and the buzz surrounding it.

At this point, it’s essentially a certainty that she will represent Sweden at Eurovision in Liverpool this May, and likely do very well there also. But why? Let’s look at the three Ps that will guarantee her victory. Nu kör vi…

Popularity

At time of writing, Tattoo has close to 7½ million streams on Spotify and another 2½ million views on Melodifestivalen’s YouTube channel. The lyrics’ video on her own YouTube channel has over a million views, and a new Spanish version of Tattoo released yesterday already has thousands of views. The numbers are simply staggering.

The vast majority of the media surrounding Melfest this year has targeted Loreen. A simple search for Melfest in Google or YouTube yields mainly reviews and covers of Tattoo, with little attention paid to the other songs or artists. It’s as if we’ve collectively forgotten there are 11 other songs still in the competition. It would be unfathomable for Swedes to not vote for her en masse on Saturday.

Loreen’s closest competition on YouTube comes from Norwegian twins Marcus & Martinus. Their song “Air” has about 560K views – impressive in its own right – but that’s not even 25% the views that Tattoo has. Meanwhile on the Top 50 Spotify chart in Sweden, Tattoo is number 1. It’s closest Melfest competitor is Six Feet Under, with less than half the streams.

It is then not surprising the betting odds give Loreen an 83% chance of winning Melfest. Her victory seems so certain, that Sweden surpassed Ukraine in the betting odds a few hours after Tattoo was performed in Heat 4, on the assumption that ‘Queen Loreen’ will be victorious on Saturday in Stockholm.

Performance

If the popularity numbers aren’t enough to convince anyone, the performance itself should. Simply put, there is nothing like it in the competition this year. Loreen elevates this anthemic song with her performance on stage into a literal moving piece of art. Add to that her powerful pitch-perfect vocals, and it all comes together into a raw yet emotional staging that connects with viewers. Each time I watch the 3 minute clip, I feel like I’m drawn into the world she’s created on stage. This is a performance that will score huge with both the international juries AND the televote.

Place

This is where it really gets interesting. Under the guise of creating the best show possible for viewers, broadcaster SVT chooses the running order of the Melfest entries. In doing so, the producers wield great power and influence over the final results. Past editions have shown consistently that songs performed close to the end usually score well, and often go on to win.

Sweden increased the final of Melfest from 10 to 12 artists in 2015, and since then most of the winners and the highest average result is clearly the song performed 10^th in the show, and where is Tattoo this year? You guessed it – performing 10^th in the running order. The table below is based on results going back to 2015 (for consistency).

Could the final results look like the table above? The data show the songs that go first tend to skew lower than the ones that go near the end of the show. In fact, the first three spots in the running order end up in the bottom 4 of the results’ table, on average.

The fact that Loreen will perform 10^th appears to be no happy accident, as it looks to be a deliberate act by the show’s producers to cement her victory and book her ticket to Liverpool.

Do you agree? Should Loreen already pack her bags for Eurovision? Let us know below or at our socials @escbubble! You can also vote in our Melodifestivalen poll!

[democracy id=”197″]